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Scenarios for Patrick Mahomes being the starting Chiefs QB

Ranked from Best Case Scenario to Worst

Mike Welch
August 20, 2017 - 7:20 pm

Patrick Mahomes is lighting up the preseason and making plays we’ve never seen a QB in a Chiefs uniform make.

Don’t believe me? In the following video, check out the 1:05 mark or (even more impressive) the 3:50 mark.

Performances like this have caught the eye of everybody around the NFL:

So the question becomes, how long can you justify Patrick Mahomes sitting on the bench? In what scenario does he take over?

Scenarios for Patrick Mahomes Taking Over The Starting QB Job, Ranked from Best to Worst.

Best Case Scenario: 1. Patrick Mahomes is so good at some point in this season that Andy Reid has no choice but to start him. Alex Smith apologists will hate this scenario initially, but if you think about it, in order for Mahomes to take his job, he would have to be even better than Alex. That would be incredible for the Chiefs. I don’t see this being a likely scenario for the 2017 season, but it would be the best.

2. Patrick Mahomes doesn’t take over until 2019 or later because Alex Smith has been so amazing in 2017, the Chiefs can’t justify it. Another unlikely scenario, but in order for Alex to keep the job, he would have to get the Chiefs over the hump to the Super Bowl. As excited as we all are to see Mahomes develop, the Chiefs getting to a Super Bowl is the goal. Nobody cares who plays QB as long as that happens.

3. Patrick Mahomes takes over after a typical 2017 for the Chiefs. Alex holds onto the job, but the Chiefs get knocked out of the playoffs before the AFC Championship. After the season, the Chiefs move on to the future at QB instead of paying Alex Smith $18M. This is the most likely scenario. 

4. Alex Smith gets injured and Patrick Mahomes is forced to take the training wheels off early and try to lead the Chiefs. After seeing Mahomes control the huddle and the line of scrimmage in the preseason, I have zero doubt in my mind that he will be able to rise to the occasion. That said, I want the best QB out there for the Chiefs to win, so I don’t want Mahomes to take the starting QB job via injury... even though there have been success stories that began that way (see: Tom Brady, Kurt Warner).

Worst Case Scenario: 5. Alex Smith plays so poorly that Patrick Mahomes is forced to replace him even though he isn’t developed to the where Andy Reid feels comfortable putting him in yet. This means the Chiefs are having a terrible season, and Patrick Mahomes is thrown to the wolves before he’s ready. This seems like the least likely scenario, which is good news because it would be horrible for KC.

Send your thoughts on the Chiefs preseason game vs. the Bengals and the scenarios where we see Patrick Mahomes take over as the starting QB to @RealMikeWelch.

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